Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 73401.344463 77587.488330 81777.529512 86283.067196 90987.721985 95752.237344 100938.999973
2025-03-30 66904.963929 73325.916265 79937.355641 87243.985965 95082.758355 103230.107007 112328.510064
2025-04-06 61759.171812 69668.923289 77998.210630 87403.094970 97706.770458 108631.377253 121069.486235
2025-04-13 57631.523277 66621.258053 76268.479802 87358.413314 99720.694520 113043.584075 128452.629484
2025-04-20 55079.178022 65027.847395 75878.934270 88544.713938 102872.244033 118526.090367 136870.073894
2025-04-27 52926.807540 63686.637575 75594.934953 89685.413069 105833.115689 123689.806309 144856.884911
2025-05-04 50728.052120 62133.369969 74928.344497 90259.685852 108040.333074 127920.555239 151733.339436
2025-05-11 48473.487108 60380.293926 73910.303837 90315.421678 109554.956090 131287.949220 157572.655473
2025-05-18 46557.482488 58919.679536 73137.123703 90567.076627 111221.275169 134774.074128 163513.722333
2025-05-25 44746.263004 57492.936404 72321.801326 90692.862940 112676.300900 137968.996331 169089.445113
2025-06-01 43625.533736 56839.592962 72374.720248 91805.557452 115264.576724 142472.990938 176202.225804
2025-06-08 41938.849382 55420.649704 71440.215233 91670.875303 116314.154238 145126.838365 181112.218611
2025-06-15 41081.839884 55007.587337 71718.968515 93011.905907 119162.663368 149963.998888 188696.033626
2025-06-22 40035.713467 54315.655380 71621.401505 93866.905551 121409.489175 154086.081013 195451.492670
2025-06-29 38707.355656 53214.726816 70971.059278 93998.460032 122740.475922 157086.888571 200855.131026
2025-07-06 37373.216104 52056.459348 70203.778490 93942.712848 123807.154313 159745.694167 205837.500447
2025-07-13 36724.747282 51755.934159 70495.605326 95198.990143 126494.702129 164389.616577 213266.166218
2025-07-20 36095.611979 51453.398881 70762.908048 96408.171989 129117.087651 168960.060521 220629.001175
2025-07-27 35239.218286 50819.364262 70577.332660 97016.974321 130969.155501 172575.053136 226824.562620
2025-08-03 34192.186692 49896.344562 69986.126367 97076.046781 132102.859719 175285.175583 231898.503838
2025-08-10 33284.596210 49130.793509 69573.632539 97342.855021 133484.823546 178299.214476 237358.701152
2025-08-17 32366.337802 48321.333930 69076.928183 97476.213777 134678.147953 181068.216715 242516.395825
2025-08-24 31909.639116 48127.594665 69383.367743 98655.814596 137222.857255 185556.818233 249869.080009